Bettors live by the mantra: “Good Teams win but great teams cover.”
In the case of Tom Brady, he will not only go down as the NFL G.O.A.T but also as one of the greatest athletes bettors have ever seen against the spread (ATS).
Brady Finishes Second All Time Against The Spread
During his illustrious career, Brady compiled an astounding 251-82 (75.4%) straight-up (SU) record in the regular season. From a betting perspective, the 15 time Pro Bowl selection posted a 190-136-7 ATS (58.3%) mark in those games.
The seven-time Super Bowl champion holds nearly every NFL record, but despite his impressive ability to beat the betting line he will not go down as the best quarterback ever against the number. That honor belongs to Hall of Fame signal-caller Joe Montana, who posted a 101-63 ATS mark in regular-season games, helping bettors win their investments at a 61.6% clip.
Brady Consistently Drove Sportsbook Handle
To say Brady was a major factor to the bottom line in NFL wagering of sportsbooks over the last 23 years is an understatement. However, despite beating their closing line 58.3% of the time, oddsmakers like Sherman Reaper at the South Point Casino will miss Brady lining up under center on Sundays:
“Brady was always great for the book, consistently generating a solid handle,” Reaper said.
The veteran sportsbook supervisor pointed out an interesting hurdle sportsbooks faced in setting Tampa Bay’s betting line this season.
“Tampa Bay’s offensive line was not very good this season and that put us in a position where we often wanted to shade the number. The public’s willingness to back Brady in his 23rd season meant we could never go too far because we needed to be cognizant of the sharp money waiting to pick off inflated numbers,” Reaper said. “We had to respect that aspect, despite the Buccaneers under .500 SU (straight up) record. Brady was an underdog in four games (including playoffs) this season and he was 0-4 ATS (against the spread) in those spots. On a whole, those outcomes were good for the book as the public consistently backed Brady plus the points – especially as a home ‘dog against Dallas in the wild-card round.”
In Tampa Bay’s 31-14 wild-card loss to the Cowboys, Brady failed to cover as a three-point home underdog. As Kyle Wood highlighted, it was the first time in his career he was a home underdog in the playoffs.
Following what now appears to be his final game, Brady finished with a 37–27 SU and 41-21-2 ATS record as an underdog.
Let that sink in for a minute.
When bettors found Brady listed as an underdog, he rewarded those who believed in his abilities to cover the spread at an amazing 66.1% clip.
Brady finished his career 35-13 (72.9%) SU in the playoffs, while posting a corresponding 25-22-1 (53.2) ATS mark.
The NFL’s greatest quarterback was only average in 10 Super Bowl appearances?!
Really?
Well, sort of.
Brady did go 7-3 SU in the sport’s biggest game, so we need to be careful tossing around the word “average.” From a betting perspective, he only posted a 5-5 ATS mark.
However, he was outstanding when oddsmakers didn’t believe he would hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Brady was 3-0 SU and ATS when installed as an underdog in the Big Game. In his one Super Bowl appearance with Tampa Bay, he upset the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV as a three-point ‘dog. In his career with New England, he beat Seattle as one-point underdog in Super Bowl XLIX, as well as shocking Kurt Warner and the Rams as a massive 14-point underdog in Super Bowl XXXVI.
Brady also made bettors additional money by winning an NFL record five Super Bowl MVP awards.
Which Team Did Brady Beat The Most?
In his 23-year career, Brady posted more wins (30) against the Jets than any other team. While finishing with a 30-7 SU record against the Gang Green, the talented signal-caller posted a corresponding 19-17-1 ATS mark. The Hall-of-Fame-bound gunslinger also went 1-1 SU and ATS in two playoff meetings with the Jets.
