A potential NBA Finals preview headlines Wednesday’s NBA action, as the Boston Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder for the second and final time this season.
The Thunder won’t have a key player in their rotation, All-Star Jalen Williams, for this matchup, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t wager on it!
After losing a sweep yesterday on a crazy Tyrese Haliburton 3-pointer against the Milwaukee Bucks, I’m back with four plays for Wednesday’s nine-game slate.
One of those plays is for the Boston-OKC clash, but I also have three player props to consider, including one former superstar that is starting to find his old form in an expanded role.
Here’s a complete breakdown of all of my NBA bets for Wednesday, March 12.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 180-171-4 (+1.35 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1190-1116-26 (+39.44 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Klay Thompson OVER 19.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unitJulius Randle OVER 12.5 Assists and Rebounds (+100) – 0.5 unitMiles McBride OVER 3.5 Assists (-160) – 0.5 unitOklahoma City Thunder-Boston Celtics OVER 227.5 (-108) – 0.5 unitKlay Thompson OVER 19.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
With Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis out, the Dallas Mavericks’ offense has run through Klay Thompson as of late.
The four-time champion is thriving in a featured role, averaging 23.8 points on 20.0 shots per game over his last four contests. He has at least 26 points in three of those four games, and his usage has seen a massive uptick. Thompson is playing well over 30 minutes per game in that stretch, and he’s attempted 27, 19, 20 and 14 shots in those four games.
Klay needed just 14 shots to drop 26 on the San Antonio Spurs in his last game, and now he faces them again on Wednesday. While P.J. Washington (questionable) could eat into Thompson’s workload, the Mavs don’t have much of a choice but to lean on Klay and his long-range shooting.
As long as he keeps getting up close to 20 shots a night, it’s hard not to love him in this market.
Julius Randle OVER 12.5 Assists and Rebounds (+100) – 0.5 unit
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-0 since Julius Randle returned from injury, and the All-Star forward has stuffed the stat sheet in a big way since coming back.
Over this five-game stretch, Randle is averaging 17.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game, putting up 13 or more rebounds and assists in four consecutive matchups.
Overall, Randle is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game this season. He’s seen his potential assists per game jump to 9.8 over this five-game stretch, and I expect him to have a big role with the Denver Nuggets likely down Aaron Gordon (doubtful) on Wednesday night.
Randle has 13, 19, 19 and 17 rebounds and assists in his last four games, so this number feels like a bit of a discount on Wednesday, especially against a Denver team that ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent assists per game.
Randle recorded 13 and 14 rebounds and assists in his first two meetings with Denver this season, dropping seven dimes in both of those matchups.
Miles McBride OVER 3.5 Assists (-160) – 0.5 unit
Since Jalen Brunson went down with an ankle injury, Miles McBride has been thrust into the starting lineup for New York, and he’s thriving as a passer.
The New York Knicks guard has six and seven assists in his last two starts, and he’s played over 30 minutes in each game. This line is way too low for McBride, especially since Tom Thibodeau has a penchant for playing his starters for most of the game.
McBride is averaging just 2.7 assists per game this season in a bench role, but he’s averaging 8.5 potential assists per game since moving into the starting lineup. He’s a steal at this number on Wednesday.
Oklahoma City Thunder-Boston Celtics OVER 227.5 (-108) – 0.5 unit
Oklahoma City has been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but over its last 10 games, it’s also No. 1 in the league in offensive rating.
Boston is fourth in offensive rating over that stretch, and the C’s are very willing to bomb away from 3-point land – which usually leads to some high-scoring games.
In fact, the OVER is 18-16 in Boston’s home games and 16-14-1 in OKC’s road games this season.
The loss of Jalen Williams certainly hurts OKC, but it appears there’s a chance Kristaps Porzingis could return for Boston (he’s listed as questionable).
While the Thunder are No. 2 in the league in opponent points per game, they’ve given up some pretty big numbers as of late, including 140 to the Nuggets on Monday and 128 to the Houston Rockets earlier this month.
I expect both of these teams to light things up on the offensive end in what could be an NBA Finals preview.
