From J.R. Willis (@thewillisfactor):
From Dan George (@dag54125):
So these two questions tie into one another—and raise, to me, the most interesting element of the Carson Wentz saga. And that’s what Wentz wants. The to-be-jettisoned Eagles QB doesn’t have a no-trade clause, nor does he have much good tape from 2020. But he does have a lot of money due to him over the next two years. The $25.4 million he’s due this year is already fully guaranteed, and $15 million of the $22 million he’s on the books for in 2022 becomes fully guaranteed in mid-March.
As a practical matter, that means the team acquiring him will either pay $40.4 million for one year of him (and that’d be if things went horrifically enough where they’d cut him and give him the $15 million guarantee to go away before 2022) or $47.4 million for two (which would be a really good rate if he regains his early-career form). Add that to the draft-pick compensation he’ll command in a trade, and it’s fair to say the team bringing him in would rather not have him stomp his feet walking through the door.
That, to me, is Wentz’s leverage. It’s understandable why he’d want Indy over Chicago. Frank Reich is there, you can feel good that he and Chris Ballard will be in charge for the foreseeable future, the cap is healthy and the roster is loaded with ascending young talents (including players like Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor to throw/hand off to, and Quenton Nelson to protect you). Conversely, in Chicago, the line needs fixing, your No. 1 receiver’s a free agent, the cap is a little messy and the future beyond this year is murky.
I’m pointing that out as someone who believes Chicago could be really good for Wentz. I think he the hard coaching he’s had a tough time with, and Bears passing game coordinator John DeFilippo was that guy for him his first two years in Philly. Also, Matt Nagy’s as solid a quarterbacks guy as you could want, and there are some promising young pieces (Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet). But I’m not the one who needs to be convinced. Wentz is.
As for whether it happens this week, I think it does. But if Philly had the offer it wanted, it—obviously—would’ve happened already. And while I think GM Howie Roseman may have overplayed his hand a little on this one, no one’s better or more creative as a deal-maker, one reason why this is going at his pace.
