For the fifth straight year, I've bet on every single game of the NFL season. If you want my best bets for all 16 NFL Week 8 games, you can find them in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets"."
For the first time this year, I'm also betting 10 player props every week and in this article, I'm going to give you my 10 favorite player props for Week 8 action. I'll look to bounce back after a losing Week 7, going 4-6 for -2.58 units. I'm still profitable with these on the season, sitting with a record of 34-35-1 for +0.49 units.
Let's see if we can have a winning record this week.
Best NFL Player Props for Week 810) Aaron Rodgers OVER 232.5 Pass Yards (-110)
Aaron Rodgers has an extremely favorable matchup in this game. The Patriots' secondary has been horrific this season, ranking 25th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2) while also allowing 223.4 passing yards per game.
There's going to be no shortage of pass attempts from Rodgers on Sunday. He has thrown the ball at least 30 times in every game since Week 1 and in the Jets' Week 3 game against the Patriots, he threw the ball 35 times for 281 yards. As a cherry on top, Davante Adams having a full week with the Jets is only going to help Rodgers further.
9) Saquon Barkley OVER 74.5 Rush Yards (-114)
The Eagles are going to be able to run the ball all over the Bengals this week. Cincinnati ranks 30th in opponent rush EPA and dead last in opponent rush success rate. Now, they have to try to defend against one of the most effective running backs in the league.
Saquon Barkley is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 109.7 rushing yards per game. Despite being that effective, oddsmakers are still setting his rushing yards total 35 yards less than his season average.
I envision the Eagles running the ball early and often and Barkley soaring over this number.
8) Drake London OVER 5.5 Receptions (-137)
Drake London has been fed the ball a ton this season, tied for third in the league in targets with 62. He has also had at least six receptions in every single game since the opening week.
Now, he gets to face a Buccaneers defense that he torched just a few weeks ago, hauling in 12 receptions on 13 targets. There's no reason why he won't have another big performance against this defense on Sunday.
7) Jameis Winston OVER 225.5 Pass Yards (-130)
I'm all in on the Browns now that Deshaun Watson is out at quarterback and Jameis Winston is in. With that being said, this bet is more of a bet against the Ravens defense than it is a bet on Winston.
Baltimore's secondary has been horrific. They've allowed the most passing yards per game this season at 287.1. They also rank 28th in opponent dropback EPA and 25th in opponent dropback success rate.
On top of that, the Ravens offense is so good that they put their opponents in a negative game script by the time the halftime whistle blows. That forces their opponents to abandon the run game and start airing it out every play, further adding to their passing yards.
It's not too big an ask for Winston to hit at least 226 yards.
6) Brock Bowers Touchdown (+255)
The Kansas City Chiefs have struggled to defend against tight ends all season, so it makes sense to bet on one of the most effective tight ends in the league to find the end zone, especially at +255 odds.
The Raiders’ rookie tight end is tied for sixth in the NFL in targets this season with 60 and he has seen double-digit targets along with 8+ receptions in three-straight games. Additionally, if the Chiefs get out to a big lead, a negative game script should yield even more opportunities for Bowers through the air.
5) Javonte Williams OVER 62.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Javonte Williams has stepped up his play the past few weeks and now he has another favorable matchup ahead of him against the Panthers. The Carolina Panthers rank 29th in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. They also allow the most rushing yards per game, giving up 162.1 per contest.
On top of that, with how bad the Panthers are this game could turn into a blowout in favor of the Broncos quickly. If it does, there's a chance they turn to the run game and give Williams even more carries than he would in a close game.
4) Kyler Murray UNDER 208.5 Pass Yards (-115)
The Dolphins defense has been underrated this season, especially their secondary. They have allowed the fewest passing yards per game, giving up just 154.5 per contest.
Kyler Murray hasn't been as effective through the air as people may assume. For example, he's averaging just 190.1 passing yards per game, 18 yards fewer than his set total for this game. He may be able to get things going with his legs, but I'll fade his passing yards total.
3) Jordan Love OVER 255.5 Pass Yards (-115)
Jordan Love should be well poised to completely torch the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags secondary ranks dead last in opponent dropback EPA and 26th in opponent dropback success rate. They have also allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 30th in the NFL.
Jordan Love, who is already averaging the most passing yards per game this season at 270.2, has a stacked receiving core that can exploit this Jacksonville secondary. If he hits his season average in passing yards, this bet will be a winner.
2) Kyren Williams UNDER 73.5 Rush yards (-113)
I'm going to fade the Rams running back on Thursday Night Football. Kyren Williams has yet to face an elite run defense this season and now they have to face arguably the best defense in the NFL in doing that.
Minnesota leads the NFL in opponent rush EPA, they rank second in opponent rush success rate, and fifth in opponent yards per carry.
It's also worth noting that with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup for the Rams, they may increase their pass play rate, decreasing the amount of carries for Williams.
1) Anthony Richardson UNDER 16.5 Completions (-133)
We're fading the Colts quarterback as my top player prop of the week. Anthony Richardson has been horrific this season. Despite finding ways to win games, he is last amongst qualifying quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite and he's recorded a completion percentage of just 48.51%.
He has also had more than 10 completions just once this season when he had 17 completions against the Packers in Week 2.
The icing on the cake is the fact the Texans lead the entire NFL in opponent completion percentage, keeping opponent quarterbacks to completing just 56.34% of their passes.
All of those factors point to Richardson once again failing to put together a strong performance. Under 16.5 completions seems like a no-brainer to me.
